Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Oil Palm Plantations
Keywords:
Climate adaptation, Coastal Vulnerability, NDVI trend, Remote Sensing, Satellite altimetryAbstract
Indonesia's coastal oil palm plantations face unprecedented threats from accelerating sea level rise, with regional rates of 4–5 mm year?¹ significantly exceeding global averages. This study presents the first comprehensive satellite-based assessment of sea level rise impacts on coastal oil palm vulnerability, focusing on Dumai City, Riau Province. We utilized five primary datasets spanning from 2020–2024: Landsat 8/9 and Sentinel-2 imagery for plantation mapping, SRTM DEM for topographic analysis, satellite altimetry for sea level measurements, and ground truth data for validation. Cross-wavelet analysis revealed an exceptionally strong negative correlation (r = -0.857) between sea level anomalies and coastal land cover changes, with a 30-day lag period indicating plantation ecosystem response time. NDVI trend analysis showed significant vegetation decline (-0.072 NDVI/year) over the study period, with plantation health deteriorating from optimal conditions in 2020 (mean NDVI: 0.608) to critical levels by 2024 (mean NDVI: 0.335). Land cover change detection revealed extensive palm oil expansion (+4,848 ha, +26.3%) occurring through conversion of natural forest (-3,114 ha, -22.8%) and mangrove ecosystems (-1,300 ha, -19.5%). Results reveal that 78% of coastal oil palm plantations are located within 5 km of shoreline on low-lying areas with elevations below 3 meters above sea level. The vulnerability assessment identified 2,847 hectares (64% of total coastal plantations) as highly vulnerable to inundation and saltwater intrusion, representing USD 12.3 million in annual production value at risk.
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